The research
What this is built on
Furlong's suggestions come from published sports-science research, not from opinion. Every rule the app applies is listed here with the work it rests on.
The same list is in the app, at Settings → About → “The evidence behind this”, and beside “This week, and the plan ahead” on the Today screen. Every source links to the paper itself, not to a summary of it.
The rules, and their sources
Watching recent load against your longer-term base
Maupin D, Schram B, Canetti E, Orr R. The relationship between acute:chronic workload ratios and injury risk in sports: a systematic review. Open Access Journal of Sports Medicine, 2020.
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Two short strength sessions every week
Lauersen JB, Bertelsen DM, Andersen LB. The effectiveness of exercise interventions to prevent sports injuries: a systematic review and meta-analysis of randomised controlled trials. British Journal of Sports Medicine, 2014.
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Asking how a run felt, and acting on the answer
Saw AE, Main LC, Gastin PB. Monitoring the athlete training response: subjective self-reported measures trump commonly used objective measures: a systematic review. British Journal of Sports Medicine, 2016.
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Estimating a session's cost from duration and effort
Session-RPE method for training load monitoring: validity, ecological usefulness, and influencing factors. Frontiers in Neuroscience, 2017.
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Keeping easy days genuinely easy
Seiler S. What is best practice for training intensity and duration distribution in endurance athletes? International Journal of Sports Physiology and Performance, 2010.
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Trimming the day after a short night's sleep
Milewski MD, Skaggs DL, Bishop GA, et al. Chronic lack of sleep is associated with increased sports injuries in adolescent athletes. Journal of Pediatric Orthopaedics, 2014.
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Honesty
Where the evidence argues back
The acute-versus-chronic load idea is widely studied and genuinely contested. Researchers disagree about how precisely it predicts anything, and in distance runners specifically the findings are mixed. We think you should know that, so both papers are here too.
Whether the measure holds up at all
Editorial: Acute:Chronic Workload Ratio — Is There Scientific Evidence? A summary of the ongoing argument about how much this measure can be trusted.
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A running cohort where it did not predict injury
Assessing the relationship between training load and injury in ultramarathon runners: a novel approach using Generalised Additive Models.
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This is why the app treats load as a guardrail rather than a verdict. It will tell you a week looks steep given where you are. It will never give you an injury-risk percentage, because that number would be more confident than the research supports.
An app that shows its sources can be argued with.
On how this model was built, and what only became visible once it was drawn: Sorry, Raymond. It is time to take the shell off.
Furlong offers training guidance, not medical advice. It does not diagnose, treat or prevent injury or any medical condition, and it cannot know what is happening in your body. Pain that persists, worsens, or changes how you move belongs to a doctor or physiotherapist, not to an app. Always seek professional advice before starting or changing an exercise programme.